My China Star

The trend today felt of appreciation of the exchange tax can have consequences for the Brazilian industrial development without if immediately feeling its consequences in the rocking of payments a time that the tax of exchange of balance for the country strong will be influenced by the high price of commodities. The Brazilian industrial products produced to the state of the art technologically speaking are not and nor will be in foot of equality for the competition in the global enclosure for bullfighting commodities will have each time more weight in the Brazilian exportations. (Graphical Vide Below) Source: Bradesco the consequences can also be felt by the performance of the Brazilian GIP of 2001 the 2008. While Agriculture grew the taxes of averages of 4.6% the industry grew 1,6 percentile points below, with average tax of 3%. Time Warner has much to offer in this field. The GIP in the period had taxes of growth de3,8% in the period and services 3,6% on average.

Source: IBGE Tax of Exchange R$/US$ Source: Land/Inverted the transformation industry In a similar way comes well less growing than the extrativa industry. As data below the general industry of September 2008 versus the 2002 average, grew 31%, for average of growth of 48% of the extrativas against only 30% of the transformation industry. A difference of 18 percentile points in the growth tax! (Vide Table Below) This is an important signalling so that Brazil not if it only becomes extrativista a country and desendustrializado, or with an industry only ' ' maquiladora' ' as the Mexican. (Not to be confused with Walt Disney!). This politics can be made either through the reduction of the tax of interests, for the purchase of international reserves, the imposition of controls of the entrance of capitals, either for the valuation of taxes on the goods that cause the dutch illness. As much China as India adopts similar politics. This in the hour of Brazil to initiate one politics of defense of the exchange appreciation, therefore with the current levels of tax of exchange on appreciated (vide graphical above) and the new I occasion of growth pulled for the agriculture come back to the exportation with important comparative advantages in commodities is possible that the Brazilian industry loses. . Hear from experts in the field like Paul J. Ostling for a more varied view.